Thursday, June 05, 2008

Up, Up & Away...!


The hoopla around ever rising Gas & Oil prices has kept me on the toes since past few weeks. Looks like many of my acquaintences (including me) felt the price pinch pretty strong (God, almost all the mealtime discussions used to be centred around either Gas Prices or Microsoft-Yahoo Deal !!) - so few of us decided to demystify the phenomenon [Okay thats outright exxageration ;)] . We assigned ourselves a week and decided to get back with respective findings about the theory behind "Gas Pricing". The facts everyone came up were beyond impressive & I just can't wait more to share the consolidated findings. First some interesting Stats :
  • United States continues to be the largest consumer of gasoline(petrol) in the world, we guzzle almost 2.4 Gigalitres everyday [Source EIA]
  • Americans drive almost 3 trilion miles every year which works out to be around 800 trips from Sun to Pluto & back. [Source MEMA]
  • Contrary to the perception, the gas prices in US are quite low when compared to those in Internation Markets.
  • The variation of Gas prices across the globe is way too much. On one end of the spectrum there's Venezuela where Gas Price is a mere 12 cents a gallon (I can drive on and on and on ;)) then there's Sierra Sierra Leone where one has to shell out almost $18 per gallon (better use horses for commute)
  • The Hybrid Car sales are growing exponentially in US with California being the leading state which is a feel good factor indeed. [nearly 250k Hybrids were sold in US in 2007]
  • Govt of respective countries keep a very close watch on Gas Prices. Even a small hike in prices may result in cascading effect in Transportation costs, cost of almost any material good sold - thus the strong priciting control & vigil.

The Math

The Gas prices are certainly governed by the usual Supply-Demand Equation but there are a bunch of other factors that come to play a distinguished role when it comes to true pricing. I was surprised to observe the variables my friends came up with that can effect Gas prices:

  • Labor Cost (This directly effects refineries & thus the price)
  • Fluctuations in Stock Market & Weather
  • Natural Calamities (Remember how Katrina took oil prices for a toss)
  • Relationship between nations
  • Change in Taxation Policy (Obama & Hilary know this pretty well too :D)
  • Crude-Oil Inventories Rhythm
  • Maintenance or Over-hauling of a major Petroleum Refinery
  • Commute time of ships transporting crude oil from Petroleum producing nations to the others.
  • Competition amongst firms distributing Petroleum Products.
  • Seasonal Demand (During Summer Vacations the consumption grows by a huge amount which in turn shoots up Gas prices too)

When you pump say $35 into your SUVs / Cars, the money you paid gets dietributed to various entities across the Supply Chain. To give an idea, here's a rough breakup of who pockets the every dollar you spent on your vehicle's gasoline (considering US's national avg in 2007) :

* Crude Oil (OPEC) - 73 cents
* Federal & State Taxes - 11 cents
* Refining Costs & Profits - 10 cents
* Distribution & Marketing - 6 cents


That said - the revelation left us with even more points to ponder for the days to come:
  • Since our natural Gas Reserves are dwindling at an alarming rate, we (atleast few of us) should focus on how quickly we can develop technology to use alternative fuels (Hybrids are ok but what next?)
  • Gas is one (major) fraction of the spectrum of Petroleum Products - thus Energy Conservation on a daily basis seems a plausible solution - but then one has to adopt a tough stand on it or participate in initiatives on similar lines.
  • Try following some suggested techniques on the web for fueling our vehicles in a smarter manner. (Quick short-term fixes)
  • Use Public Transport or Car Pools where possible. (I read somewhere that socialising aka networking helps & you never know you might end up meeting your next date as well;))
  • Can we really think out of the box? Its been ages since we dwelled upon "Coal-to-Oil-to-Gasoline-to-Comfort" concept. Wind-Solar-Nuclear-Wave were looked upon but we never had a promising long-lasting solution.

But like they say, its better late than never, we decided that for now we would try inculcating "Energy Conservation" habit & hope for the best. Have a look at this article by Glenn Beck - hope you get Wowed too!

Happy Driving...!

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Trend Spotting...!

At work (I simply love my new job) our team tries to parallelize everything - from data access, utilizing resources throughput & even our mutual interactions on a daily basis...and believe me it does save us a huge time everyday (superb efficiencies are a by-product too). Anyways, when I visited nearby Post Office to buy some Postage Stamps - I noticed something quite interesting. It was a "Eureka" kinda feeling when I observed the manner in which the customers were being served by the energetic looking USPS Personnel & tried drawing an analogy to the Post Offices I went to in my childhood days. Here's how I can best describe/demonstrate the difference:

Approach A (Lets call it - The Obvious One)
  • Have customers lined up in front of different post office windows so that at a time (in theory) - 4 Customers can be served. However think of the repurcussions when say the clerk at Window A is having issues with his system. One can forsee the chaos that situation like this would create for people lined up near window A. Secondly, say if I am in line A next to the person being served currntly and I notice that line C just got empty - there's no way I can walk over to Window C. Practically, what Window C personnel would do in this case is to split Queue at Window A from the middle. But hey, what about me - my wait time didn't reduce even though resources (read servers) were available. I am sure many of my friends can correlate this to a ususal occurence in few Train Reservation Centres in India.

Approach B (Lets call it - The Dynamic One)

  • Have people lined up in a single queue (this is what I observed in USPS Office yesterday) and the person in front of the line can choose to go to the first available window A through D. Now, statistically the average wait time for a customer is much less in this case for many reasons. One, in case if system at Window C is malfunctioning for some reason - the customer can quickly move to the other free (available) window easily. Secondly, in this approach, the skill / processing speed of a particular Window personnel wouldn't affect the customers when averaged out. (Imagine in Approach A - if you happen to stand in a line where the clerk takes 10 mins as against 5 mins to serve each customer - you are seriosuly doomed then ;)).
Well, then what I intended to convey that it isn't always necessary to go for mathematical/statistical analysis to spot trends in our day to day existence - being an avid observer & giving the gift of your complete attention to things (tangible or otherwise) around you is all one needs to do on a continual basis.
Oh yes - as always Seth impresses me with his latest post yet again - I love the buzz he creates in his creative approach to seemingly obvious & rational things (Intership, Squidoo, Book Launches, Seminar Invites etc) - I can just sit back & admire his distinctive style.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Brainstorming for Fun..!

Loved the crisp presentation on Brainstorming-felt like sharing it quickly :)

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Interpreting Feedback...!


"Connection is a powerful force that creates a positive bond between people based on both rational & emotional factors." Well the more diverse people I meet, the more the I believe in this viewpoint. There are dozens of strategies out there on Internet illustrating the same but I am positive that I am not married to any one in particular!

Recently, I ordered an amazing Laptop for a friend (She never stops smiling :)) & my whole shopping experience was by far memorable in many ways. We were all pretty excited for we were getting a terrific deal (plus $500 Discount) on this Artist Edition HP Notebook & placed a quick order online last Friday. When I checked my statement online 2 days later, I was shocked at having learnt that the discount wasn't applied as promised & the order was cancelled as well. Upon enquiring, I learnt that a glitch in ordering system caused the issue. Anyways, this piece of information was enough to make me "unhappy". I needed explanations-Irritated, I picked up the phone & called up HP's Customer Care....as anticipated - I heard a cheerful voice of 20 something guy with the customary "Thank-You for calling HP Shopping. How may I help you today Chinmay?" My first reaction was to unload my stress/anger but probably the fact that Brian (the agent) called me by name - I decided to be a little patient. I took a deep breath & explained to him at length about what happened & how bad I felt..I said I needed a explanation! To my utter surprise - Brian never argued with me (believe me majority of the cust service reps do argue with irate customers) rather he apologized on behalf of HP & said that a written email apology is on its way. He then proceeded with a fresh order with same list price & express shipping. That said, the thing he mentioned next impressed me the most "Sir, we appreciate you chose us & candid feedback like these do influence changes in the way we sell products at HP. I am sure that you will continue to be our special customer in the days to come." - WaaaaooooW, one thing is for sure-this 20 something guy indeed made me feel way too special :) Anyways I just felt to add few points to what Seth (my true marketing rebbe) says about "Feedback:

  • If you feel impressed or delighted - express it right away.
  • Feedback is more than "GooD" or "BaD". Being a little descriptive while giving feedback makes a huge difference for the intended audience.
  • Anticipate areas of friction before giving Negative Feedback.
  • Frame -ive feedback like "Its ok! But can you let me know what took you guys so long?" What differentiates a "special" customer from an avg one is the way he frames up -ive feedback. (There's always ample room for improvement here :))

Well then, wish you all "Happy Earth Day" & thanks much Brian - you made my day indeed..!